The pitch record

Last updated August 30, 2026

A YupTrack member can choose to publish their own verified record of investment pitches. Verified here means one specific thing: each pitch was committed before it settled and has not been changed since. It does not mean the platform, the club, or anyone else endorses the pitch or the person who made it. Every figure on a published record is derived only from settled pitches, a pitch whose outcome is final, and is measured against the price target, stop, and horizon the member committed to when the pitch was committed. All trading on the platform is simulated; a pitch record measures judgment, not real money.

What counts

A pitch is one committed, timestamped forecast: a direction (long or short), a price target, an optional stop, a probability, and a horizon. It settles when it touches its target, hits its stop, reaches its horizon, or is manually closed. Only settled pitches appear on the record. Open pitches and drafts are never shown, and a pitch cannot be edited after it is committed.

The figures

  • Direction hit rate: the share of settled pitches whose realized move matched the stated direction.
  • Average move capture: how much of each pitch's predicted move actually materialized, averaged across settled pitches (over-capture can exceed 100%).
  • Calibration: how well the stated probabilities matched outcomes, scored as one minus the mean Brier score. Higher is better-calibrated.
  • Average excess vs benchmark: the average return over each pitch's window minus a benchmark over the same window, in percentage points.
  • Horizon kept: whether the pitch resolved within the horizon it was given.

Reliability tiers

Every record is stamped with the number of settled pitches (n) and a reliability tier, and the two are always shown together:

  • Provisional: fewer than 10 settled pitches. The figures are an early, low-confidence sample and are labeled as such.
  • Emerging: 10 to 29 settled pitches.
  • Established: 30 or more settled pitches.

What a record is not

A published record shows one member's own results. It is never a ranking, a leaderboard, or a comparison against other members. YupTrack does not publish comparative member rankings anywhere. A strong record grants no authority, tier, or role on the platform; it is a résumé artifact, nothing more.

A member controls their record from Settings, Profile. It is off by default, and publishing it also requires the profile to be public.